It’s been a disappointing start to the season for both the Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays, and they meet on Monday night in Canada.
Seattle was expected to have one of the best starting rotations in baseball along with an above-average lineup, but neither of those have been true yet. Luis Castillo, the ace of the staff, has struggled mightily in two starts but can bounce back as he returns to the mound on Monday.
The Blue Jays were not very active in the offseason as the most notable signing was designated hitter Justin Turner. Failing to upgrade the lineup has already proven costly as Toronto is in the bottom 10 of the league in most offensive categories. Fortunately for the Jays, though, they have Jose Berrios on the hill.
Two struggling teams are meeting on Monday night, but the pitching matchup is expected to be good. Here’s a preview of the matchup with our expert’s best bets.
Luis Castillo has a 6.75 ERA after his first two starts of the season. He’s been hit hard by the Red Sox and the Guardians as he’s allowed four runs in both of his starts.
His poor opening to the season has come as quite the surprise because Castillo has been one of the most reliable arms in baseball in the past few years.
Plus, diving into the advanced metrics of his first two starts, he’s been rather unlucky. His xERA is only 3.39 and his barrel rate is a slim 5.7%, so Castillo should have better results in the future.
The Blue Jays rotation has been a topic of discussion for months. Kevin Gausman is the leader of the staff, but after him, it’s been unpredictable.
Jose Berrios has been the definition of unpredictable in the last year or so as he seems on for a few weeks and then loses it rapidly. However, he’s looked sharp in 2024 as he’s allowed just three runs and 12 hits in 12 innings.
But unlike Castillo, advanced metrics indicate he’s been very lucky. Berrios has a 6.68 xERA and .335 xBA in 12 innings, so he’s been hit hard and bailed out several times. With that in mind, the Mariners are the pick in this game.
It’s only been a week and a half, but the production from the Seattle and Toronto lineups has been slightly concerning. These lineups rank 24th and 29th in batting average, 21st and 28th in on-base percentage, and 24th and 28th in OPS. That has led to these offenses ranking 23rd and 26th in runs per game in 2024.
Both lineups are similar in the fact that they each have several elite hitters at the top of the order, but not as much consistency at the bottom. An unbalanced lineup makes it very difficult to score runs on a daily basis.
Along with similarities in the lineup, these teams are similar in the bullpen too. Seattle and Toronto have strong bullpens with several shut-down arms that are rested and ready for this matchup.
Toronto has Nate Pearson and Chad Green rested and available for tonight, while the Mariners have Andres Munoz, Ryne Stanek, and Cody Bolton on at least one day of rest. If Castillo and Berrios can avoid getting hit around, the bullpens should be able to keep the scoring to a minimum. The under is the best bet in Toronto tonight.
SEA Mariners | +100 |
TOR Blue Jays | +170 |
Run Line | Rays -1.5 (+170) |
Total | O/U 8.0 |
Jorge Polanco | +350 |
Cal Raleigh | +350 |
Julio Rodriguez | +425 |
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | +475 |
George Springer | +700 |
Bo Bichette | +850 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
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